Budapest, 29 October 2026
All data current through 29 October 2026, Europe/Budapest.
A supplier can propose a lower ethylene index and still leave a buyer with a higher bill. I would start any 2027 benchmark discussion with a much less fashionable number: the discount the buyer already receives.
Europe now has a reason to revisit that question. On 16 September, ICIS set out its plan to move the European ethylene monthly contract price (MCP) process to a three-producer, three-consumer configuration from the January 2027 settlement. It also announced a deadline and fallbacks if the broader agreement cannot be reached. Argus launched a new Northwest Europe Ethylene Index on 8 October, giving contracts another possible reference.
Argus’s methodology applies its 70% feedstock / 30% spot weighting to monthly changes in a modelled index. The index has a December 2019 starting reference. For a supply contract, the difference between its outright level and its month-to-month movement matters.
The exposure quickly becomes material. On 50,000 tonnes of annual supply, EUR 10/t in effective delivered price represents EUR 500,000 of gross annual invoice difference.
A buyer needs to know the discount being surrendered and the full delivered-price difference. The term sheet must also explain what happens when the benchmark is late or missing.
A supplier seeking the change should put the proposed concession in the offer. The paid section tests one such quote and examines a historical standstill clause that can change when a replacement price takes effect.
Views expressed by independent contributors are their own and do not represent Matium.