Material Market Update - March 17, 2026

From the CEO

Good afternoon folks,

Happy St. Patrick's Day! Luck continues to deliver for material traders as volatility spreads throughout the petrochemicals markets. PMI just printed back-to-back months of procurement activity expansion and supply shocks are hitting all plastics markets. Anecdotally, some buyers are acting fast to stay ahead of the curve and some buyers are still waking up.

We are two and a half weeks in and the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. Daily transits have collapsed from 138 to less than five. Oil reached $100 a barrel - up roughly 50% from pre-conflict levels. Iran is leveraging the strait and has stated that they will continue to do so. Just a personal projection, Trump's playbook is to destroy Iran's nuclear and military capability (the stated objective), take the economic hit in Q1-Q2, install a friendly Fed chair, negotiate a resolution from a position of strength by mid-summer, let oil normalize, cut rates into a falling inflation environment, and ride the recovery wave into November mid-terms. He can't afford this to go past June.

In the plastics market, pricing has been pressured upwards. International producers that were relying on feedstocks that pass through the gulf have announced force majeures. In response, export volumes are climbing and domestic availability is tightening as a result. PP, PE, and PET markets have all jumped significantly. PGP, the feedstock for PP, surged to 45 cpp. PE producers upgraded their increase letters from 5 cpp to 10 cpp, although they are utilizing relatively cheap natural gas feedstocks. For PET which is largely imported in the US, the prices have gone from the 50's to the 70's for virgin resin with PTA and MEG going short. Combining this with the tariff investigations add a ton of pressure on PET. Smart buyers covered their needs through some of Q2, but expect a major pricing hit to downstream manufacturers by Q3.

On the recycling side, domestic bales are lagging and Europe just lost another platform - Cirplus, a digital recycled plastics exchange, is entering liquidation at the end of this month. The continent has shed roughly a million tonnes of recycling capacity over the past three years. Domestically, the rPET plant closures from last year haven't reversed. The supply base for recycled content continues to shrink at the exact moment compliance pressure is growing. Recyclers who have managed to stay in business through the bottom of the market now find themselves in a strong position. Pricing will structurally improve throughout this year - make it count.

The market is moving and the signals are stacking. Back-to-back months of PMI expansion. A supply shock that has reshaped global trade flows overnight. A new Fed chair coming in Q2. And now USTR is investigating additional tariffs on plastics imports from 15 countries — which means the cost environment for imported resin is about to get more expensive from yet another direction. If you're a domestic trader or broker with access to supply, information, and a network, the margin opportunity hasn't been this wide in years.

If you want an unprecedented view into real-time supply and demand, come join the rest of the market on Matium. If you are the 1000th company to join, we'll send you one of our snappy quarter zips that have been all the rage at the conferences!

Thank you,
Bailey Robin - Cofounder/CEO

Key Indicators

Sources: FRED, ISM, US Census.

Markets & Trade

1. Resin Pricing Report: Commodity Resin Prices Climb as Iran War Disrupts Global Markets

Source: Plastic Today

• The outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp and immediate disruption in global polymer supply chains, notably cutting off key Middle East and Asian resin sources.
• Commodity resin prices, especially polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), surged as international buyers scrambled to secure alternative supplies, with PE contract increases revised up to $0.10/lb and spot PP prices jumping $0.10/lb domestically.
• Record trading volumes were driven by tightening feedstock availability—particularly surging polymer-grade propylene costs—and a defensive buying posture among converters anticipating further contract price hikes.
• North American resin producers, benefiting from stable operations and cost advantages, are now positioned as the substitute supplier for global markets facing significant shortages from disrupted regions.

2. USTR to Study Additional Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

Source: Recycling Today

• The U.S. Trade Representative has launched investigations into the export practices of 15 countries and the European Union, specifically targeting sectors with excess manufacturing capacity, including plastics.
• Investigations under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act may lead to new tariffs on a range of products such as plastics, aluminum, and steel, responding to concerns that foreign overproduction is harming U.S. industry and jobs.
• A recent Supreme Court decision struck down previous tariffs, but these new actions could reinstate measures affecting importers and downstream industries that rely on tariffed materials, such as equipment manufacturers and recyclers.
• Industry groups are divided: some, like the Alliance for American Manufacturing, support aggressive tariff measures to protect U.S. jobs, while others advocate for a more cautious legal and policy approach.

3. Plastics Industry Faces Mounting Challenges in 2026

Source: Plastic Today

• The plastics industry faces heightened operational challenges in 2026 due to rising oil prices, ongoing labor shortages, and significant tariff uncertainty following recent policy shifts.
• The replacement of IEEPA tariffs with Section 122 tariffs introduces rates up to 15% on imports and has triggered widespread hesitation among manufacturers, impacting equipment investments and trade planning.
• Despite these headwinds, segments such as automotive, medical plastics, and food packaging continue to exhibit strong demand, offering strategic growth opportunities amid broader market instability.
• Industry leaders recommend prioritizing automation, efficiency improvements, and targeted investments in growth sectors while preparing for ongoing disruptions from evolving trade policies and labor dynamics.

4. Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (03-06-26)

Source: American Chemistry Council

• Global chemical production increased by 0.3% in January 2026, led by growth in the Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, and Europe, while the U.S. chemical production index (CPRI) declined 0.4%, signaling regional divergences that can impact resin availability and trade flows.
• Chemical railcar loadings in the U.S. reached their highest level since April 2025 (36,642 carloads in late February), up 2.9% year to date, indicating ongoing movement of feedstocks and intermediates critical for plastics manufacturing.
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI® stayed above 50 (expansionary) for the second consecutive month, with chemicals among the 12 industries reporting growth—new orders, production, and inventories expanded, though cost pressures and soft demand persist.
• Oil prices rose sharply following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. natural gas prices remained below $3/mmbtu with ample inventories, both of which influence feedstock and energy costs in resin and plastic production.

Business & Corporate Strategy

1. Former Alabama Steel Mill Site Could Host Auto Components Plant

Source: Recycling Today

• Taiwan-based Minth Group Ltd. plans to invest $430 million to develop its largest-ever U.S. campus at a former steel mill site in Gadsden, Alabama, transforming the location into a major manufacturing hub for plastic and aluminum automotive components.
• The new 1 million-square-foot facility aims to supply U.S. automakers such as Hyundai and Kia, signaling robust growth in domestic automotive supply chains and the rising importance of engineered plastics and lightweight materials.
• Beyond job creation—more than 1,300 positions—the project leverages recyclable materials and production offcuts, reflecting both industry trends toward sustainable manufacturing and the adaptive reuse of brownfield sites.

2. Shintech Expands PVC Feedstock Production in Louisiana

Source: Plastic Today

• Shintech Louisiana LLC will invest $3.4 billion to expand its Iberville Parish facility, adding a second ethylene unit and a fourth chlor-alkali and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) unit to enhance PVC feedstock production.
• The expansion aims to secure a reliable, cost-effective supply chain for PVC manufacturing, with advanced technologies implemented to reduce environmental emissions per pound of product.
• Projected benefits include the creation of 163 direct new jobs and 655 indirect jobs, alongside significant infrastructure investment, supported by Louisiana's state and local incentive programs.

3. Nova Launches Recycled PE Grades from Indiana Plant

Source: Resource Recycling

• Nova Chemicals has launched two mechanically recycled PE grades from its new Indiana plant, aiming to supply end markets despite intense competition from low-priced virgin PE that continues to suppress demand for post-consumer resin.
• The company plans to introduce food-grade PCR resins later in 2026, having already secured FDA no-objection letters for new grades and preparing for final third-party challenge testing to confirm food-contact safety standards.
• Falling feedstock bale prices, down 30% since autumn, have not significantly boosted demand for recycled PE due to persisting price disparity and recyclers' fixed cost structures, raising concerns about further plant closures in the industry.
• Nova leverages its virgin PE manufacturing expertise to enhance the quality and consistency of recycled resins, addressing customer concerns around gels and contamination, and differentiating its products in a challenging market landscape.

Governance & Oversight

1. 2026 Plastics Recycling Conference: Diving into SB 54

Source: Recycling Today

• California is moving ahead with implementing S.B. 54, a comprehensive extended producer responsibility (EPR) law requiring all packaging sold in the state to be recyclable or compostable by 2032, along with steep targets for recycling and source reduction.
• CalRecycle, in partnership with the Circular Action Alliance, aims to have a conditionally approved implementation plan by January 2027, emphasizing flexibility and stakeholder collaboration to tackle complex regulatory requirements and infrastructure needs.
• The state is focused on overcoming key challenges—including low current recycling rates and the necessity for packaging redesigns—by building end markets, improving collection systems, and driving upstream changes to boost circularity.
• Consumer education and behavior change are identified as critical, with renewed emphasis on outreach and standardized recycling practices to reduce contamination and restore public trust in California's recycling system.

2. Washington Designates CAA to Lead EPR Implementation

Source: Resource Recycling

• Washington has appointed Circular Action Alliance (CAA) as the producer responsibility organization (PRO) to oversee its statewide packaging Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) law, the Recycling Reform Act.
• This move makes Washington the sixth state to designate CAA for such a role, further expanding CAA's multistate leadership in EPR program implementation for paper and packaging, including plastics.
• CAA will guide producers in meeting compliance requirements such as reporting, fee administration, and achieving recycling and reuse targets, leveraging its experience from other states to ensure efficient, harmonized processes.

3. ReMA Approves Updates to Inbound Residential Specs, Paper Stock Guidelines

Source: Recycling Today

• The Recycled Materials Association (ReMA) has approved updates to inbound residential recycling specifications, notably adding high-density polyethylene (HDPE) rigid can and bottle carriers to accepted plastic materials for both single- and dual-stream programs.
• The revised specifications now encompass a wider range of plastics, including PET, HDPE, polypropylene, bottles, jugs, jars, containers, and bulky rigid items, reflecting an expansion of acceptable materials for recycling centers.
• ReMA also updated the preamble to its 'Guidelines for Paper Stock' to clarify purchase agreements and transaction practices, affecting both sellers and buyers in the recycled materials market.
• A 30-day public comment period has been opened, allowing stakeholders to review and provide input on these specification changes, signaling potential future adjustments based on industry feedback.

Innovation & Product Development

1. Clariant, Borealis, SINTEF Collaborate to Advance Circular Plastic Recycling

Source: Plastic Today

• Clariant, in partnership with Borealis and SINTEF, completed a pilot-scale demonstration of its HDMax catalyst technology, effectively upgrading plastic waste-derived pyrolysis oil into high-quality feedstock suitable for virgin polyolefin production.
• The HDMax process achieves all required specifications in a single-step, multi-layer reactor, streamlining operations by reducing capital investment, operational complexity, and energy use compared with conventional multi-reactor approaches.
• The successful pilot validates a commercially viable route for closing the plastics loop, enabling recycled materials to meet stringent cracker-grade feedstock requirements and supporting the industry's shift towards true circularity.

2. Emirates Biotech Joins Circle Consortium to Turn Food Waste into PLA

Source: Recycling Today

• Emirates Biotech has joined the Circle consortium, a €27 million European project uniting 17 partners to convert organic food waste into high-purity polylactic acid (PLA) for use in various industries.
• The consortium recently achieved a breakthrough by producing the first lab-scale PLA made entirely from food waste, laying the groundwork for further industrial-scale development.
• Emirates Biotech will manage the polymerization of lactic acid sourced from food waste, supplying commercial-grade PLA to sectors such as automotive, cosmetics, and food packaging.
• This initiative addresses growing demand for sustainable materials and supports plans for a full-scale PLA plant by 2028, underscoring a significant shift toward circular and bio-based plastics manufacturing.

3. Squeezing More Sustainability into Spouted Pouches

Source: Plastic Today

• Cheer Pack N.A., in partnership with Amcor, has launched CheerCircle, a mono-material polyethylene (PE) recycle-ready spouted pouch, overcoming significant processing and sealing challenges to align with emerging Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) requirements.
• Once Upon a Farm became the first brand to fully adopt these all-PE pouches with lightweight Vizi caps, achieving a 30% reduction in plastic usage compared to previous designs and diverting approximately 19 tons of plastic waste per 10 million pouches and caps produced.
• While the new pouches are not yet curbside recyclable, their mono-material construction positions them for future recycling infrastructure advancements, and a mail-back program with Recyclops currently supports responsible end-of-life management.
• Cheer Pack N.A. plans further innovation with increased PCR content, lighter components, and tethered caps, signaling a trend toward circular packaging solutions as EPR mandates and brand expectations drive measurable material reductions and sustainable packaging design.

4. Amcor, DCM Introduce Fertilizer Packaging with 35 Percent Recycled Content

Source: Recycling Today

• Amcor and DCM have launched a new recycle-ready, monomaterial polyethylene (PE) film for fertilizer packaging in Europe, containing 35 percent postconsumer recycled content.
• The switch from multimaterial to monomaterial packaging makes the packs compatible with existing recycling streams and reduces their carbon footprint by 17 percent based on life cycle assessment data.
• This innovation enables brands to meet upcoming Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation requirements in Europe, while also supporting broader circular economy and sustainability goals with improved recyclability and reduced environmental impact.

Sustainability & Resource Management

1. New Study Reveals Robust Polystyrene Recycling Infrastructure Across North America

Source: Plastic Industry Association

• A comprehensive study by the Polystyrene Recycling Alliance and Resource Recycling Systems maps 126 companies with 169 facilities actively recycling polystyrene across 30 U.S. states and 4 Canadian provinces, indicating robust infrastructure for polystyrene recovery in North America.
• Recovery systems for expanded (EPS) and extruded polystyrene (XPS) are notably mature in business-to-business supply chains, supported by over 700 drop-off locations and manufacturer take-back programs, with more than half of facilities serving as end markets for recycled material.
• Recovery of general purpose (GPPS) and high impact polystyrene (HIPS) is less developed, with medical plastics leading post-consumer reclaimed streams, highlighting the need to expand both demand and supply through partnerships with PRFs, MRFs, and chemical recyclers.
• The study calls for building strong market demand and encouraging investment to scale up reclamation infrastructure, aiming to drive industry collaboration and support a circular economy for polystyrene products.

Events & Conferences

1. NPE2027 Gains Strong Early Momentum as Exhibitors Secure Space

Source: Plastic Industry Association

• NPE2027, the largest plastics trade show in the Americas, has already secured more than 900,000 square feet of exhibitor space, representing 82% of the available showcase floor and marking one of the highest early sales totals in event history.
• The Space Selection event saw participation from over 1,100 companies, with all booths in the Recycling & Sustainability Technology Zone sold out, signaling robust industry interest in circularity and advanced solutions.
• NPE2027 is expected to attract over 51,000 attendees and 2,200 exhibitors from 130+ countries, highlighting technologies and services across key end markets like automotive, medical, construction, consumer products, and packaging.
• High exhibitor commitment reflects strong industry confidence and positions NPE2027 as a central global platform for plastics innovation, technology, and business development.