Material Market Update - February 16, 2026

From the CEO

Good morning folks,

Over the past six months, we've watched bankruptcies sweep through recycling and converting, resin producers gut their workforces, and manufacturers consolidate at a pace that should make everyone uncomfortable. Even in distribution, Ravago has quietly absorbed its rising competitors for the better part of a decade. The corporate glob is globbier than ever.

There's a real war being fought inside these companies where the people on the ground are fighting to keep their jobs while decision-makers are still trying to understand what those jobs even are. The corporations want operational efficiency and are willing to sacrifice culture and alignment to get it. The decision to "streamline operations" without any understanding of the second-order consequences is what the CEO compensation plans incentivize.

As a trader and a market builder, this is the type of setup that makes you see money signs. A bunch of big spending corporations with no clue what is happening under the hood offloading their sales and procurement to the market. The best money you can make as a materials trader is on a sales/procurement person who doesn't understand the markets and doesn't care about their own company's P/L. The corporations are losing their culture and there's a way to make money on that.

I'm not saying this will match 2021–2023, but rates look like they will head down and the whole world is going to want new AI-infused everything. Demand will pick up and we have wiped out a ton of supply. On top of the macro setup, raw materials is one of the few industries left where participants are woefully uninformed. Those with informational asymmetry should make a killing. If you want unlimited information, scalable financing, and automated freight - check out Matium.

Thank you,
Bailey Robin - Cofounder/CEO

Key Indicators

Sources: FRED, ISM, US Census.

Markets & Trade

1. PLASTICS Economic Analysis: What Rising Labor Costs Mean for Plastics Manufacturers in 2026

Source: Plastic Industry Association

• The Plastics Industry Association's chief economist warns that rising labor costs, including minimum wage hikes and benefit expenses, will significantly impact plastics manufacturers' operating expenses in 2026.
• Labor market cooling, wage compression, and regulatory changes in health insurance are expected to further increase total employment costs, challenging manufacturers' cost structures.
• Plastics companies are advised to proactively monitor employment costs and factor projected labor trends into strategic planning to protect competitiveness and ensure workforce stability.

2. PP Cups Now 'Widely Recyclable' with Increased Acceptance

Source: Resource Recycling

• Industry collaboration has boosted curbside recycling access for polypropylene (PP) cold-drink cups by over 2 million households, leading to PP cups being designated as 'widely recyclable' by How2Recycle.
• Investments in recycling infrastructure, including $1.4 billion by WM and a capacity expansion at KW Plastics, have substantially increased PP processing capabilities and acceptance across North America.
• The adoption of clear recycling labels and real-time data tools is improving consumer guidance, with the rollout of How2Recycle's 'smart' labels and participation from major brands like Starbucks accelerating system-wide adoption.
• Despite these advances, PP is still recycled at only one-third the rate of comparable plastics, highlighting ongoing challenges and the need for sustained engagement to achieve broader recycling access.

3. HDPE, PP Bales Rise as Paper Fiber and Cans Stabilize

Source: Resource Recycling

• Post-consumer HDPE and PP bale prices saw notable increases this month, with natural HDPE rising by over 14% and PP climbing to 9.44 cents/lb, reflecting a tightening in the supply-demand balance for recycled plastics.
• Color HDPE also experienced a marginal uptick, while average prices for PET bottles and jars fell, indicating variability in market dynamics across different recycled plastic grades.
• Film grades remained steady, maintaining current prices but staying well below levels seen a year ago, suggesting stabilization after prior declines.
• Compared to last year, most plastic grades continue to trade at lower levels, pointing to broader downward price trends in the recycled plastics market despite short-term increases for select resins.

4. Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (02-13-26)

Source: American Chemistry Council

• Chemical industry employment dropped 0.5% in December (to 544,800), with plastic resin manufacturing jobs easing 0.3% to 59,800 but remaining 0.8% higher than a year prior, indicating a mixed labor trend in plastics production.
• Chemical railcar loadings rebounded after Winter Storm Fern, reaching 33,376 for the week ending February 7; while down 0.7% year-over-year (13-week moving average), year-to-date loadings are up 1.3%, suggesting improved logistics for chemical shipments crucial to plastics.
• Combined business inventories rose 0.1% in November, but manufacturing sales fell slightly, lowering the inventories-to-sales ratio to 1.37 from 1.40 a year ago—pointing to a gradual destocking trend relevant for feedstock and resin suppliers.
• Energy prices eased, with U.S. natural gas prices declining due to warmer weather; however, storage withdrawals remain robust, keeping inventories below last year and the five-year average—factors likely to influence resin production costs.
• Plastic companies may expect moderate cost pressure as average hourly earnings for chemical production workers rose 1.7% on-year to $32.14, while manufacturing activity indexes and implied labor input for chemicals signaled sector expansion in January.

Business & Corporate Strategy

1. Amcor Says Q2 Performance in Line with '26 Expectations

Source: Recycling Today

• Amcor reported strong financial results for Q2 2026, with net sales rising 68% year-over-year to $5.4 billion and EBITDA increasing 62%, largely driven by its recent acquisition of Berry Global.
• Segment performance reflected varying dynamics: Global Packaging Solutions saw net sales and earnings growth despite a slight volume decline, while Global Rigid Packaging Solutions experienced significant sales and EBIT jumps, fueled by the integration of Berry's assets.
• Growth was strongest in categories like pet food, meat proteins, beauty, and wellness, with notable volume gains in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions offsetting declines elsewhere.
• Amcor reaffirmed its full-year fiscal guidance and highlighted ongoing portfolio optimization, positioning itself as a leader in global consumer packaging and dispensing solutions.

2. Cyclyx International to Be Restructured

Source: Recycling Today

• Agilyx ASA, ExxonMobil, and LyondellBasell have agreed to restructure their plastics sorting joint venture, Cyclyx International, resulting in a realignment of facility ownership: ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell will jointly own the Houston Circularity Center, while Agilyx will retain sole ownership of the under-construction Dallas-Fort Worth location.
• Agilyx will assume full ownership of the Cyclyx consortium by late March, maintain its 50,000 metric tons per year offtake agreement with ExxonMobil, and seek to unwind $50 million in bond exposure related to the Dallas-Fort Worth project, thereby reducing its capital and operating risks.
• As part of its strategic focus shift, Agilyx plans to expand its presence in the European plastics recycling market through its platform GreenDot Global, which is licensed in 29 countries and expected to generate over €20 million in EBITDA this year, with ambitions to surpass €100 million by 2030 through further growth and acquisitions.
• ExxonMobil has fully commissioned its third advanced recycling unit at the Baytown, Texas complex, bringing annual plastic scrap processing capacity there to 250 million pounds and advancing the company's plan to reach 450 million pounds of annual advanced recycling capacity globally by year-end.

3. Orbis Acquires Thermoformer Robinson Industries

Source: Recycling Today

• Orbis Corp. acquired Robinson Industries, a long-established thermoformer, to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and strengthen its presence in the reusable plastic packaging market.
• The acquisition brings Robinson's expertise in single- and twin-sheet thermoforming, sheet extrusion, and structural foam injection molding, expanding Orbis's product portfolio for automotive, industrial, agricultural, and retail supply chains.
• Robinson's two manufacturing facilities in Coleman, Michigan, will add production capacity and provide Orbis with a strategic location near the Detroit automotive hub, integrating approximately 100 new employees.

Governance & Oversight

1. NAW secures injunction blocking enforcement of Oregon’s EPR law

Source: Recycling Today

• A federal court has granted the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) a preliminary injunction that temporarily blocks enforcement of Oregon’s extended producer responsibility (EPR) law for NAW members, pending a full trial in July.
• The injunction means NAW members are not currently required to comply with the law’s reporting, payment, and contract obligations, although the EPR program remains in effect for other producers of packaging materials in the state.
• NAW’s legal challenge argues that Oregon’s EPR law is unconstitutional, citing concerns about due process, commerce clause violations, and the financial burden imposed by mandatory fees and single-entity contracting requirements under the Circular Action Alliance.
• The outcome of this lawsuit could set a significant precedent for how EPR regulations are implemented and enforced, potentially influencing compliance strategies and regulatory risks for plastics and packaging producers nationwide.

2. Bipartisan Reps Introduce Bill on Recycling Claims

Source: Resource Recycling

• A bipartisan group in the US House, led by Rep. Nick Langworthy, has introduced the Recycled Materials Attribution Act, which aims to prohibit misleading recycled content claims by setting a uniform national standard for advertising, marketing, and selling products labeled as recycled.
• The bill has secured support from industry groups such as the Recycling Leadership Council and the American Chemistry Council, who believe it will reduce consumer confusion, provide regulatory consistency, and encourage innovation and investment in recycling and domestic manufacturing.
• The legislation directs the Federal Trade Commission to update its Green Guides to align with new requirements, establishing consistent national standards for marketing recycled content claims across the US.
• However, environmental organizations like the Ocean Conservancy have raised concerns about the bill's broad acceptance of mass-balance accounting methods, warning that it could enable greenwashing and undermine support for mechanical recycling infrastructure.

3. Malaysia Clamps Down on Illegal E-Waste Imports Amid Probes

Source: Resource Recycling

• Malaysian authorities have intensified crackdowns on illegal e-waste imports, seizing hundreds of tons of misdeclared shipments and exposing corruption within the country's environmental regulatory agencies.
• High-level arrests and anti-corruption investigations suggest systemic graft enabled e-waste smuggling, prompting calls for sweeping reforms and a proposed six-month national moratorium on plastic and e-waste imports.
• Regional challenges are escalating, with Indonesia struggling to re-export massive backlogs of hazardous waste while revoking import licenses, and investigations tracing Australian e-waste to Southeast Asia through opaque channels, likely breaching the Basel Convention.
• These developments signal elevated risk and operational uncertainty for global e-scrap exporters, who now face stricter enforcement, disrupted shipments, and growing pressures for compliance and greater supply chain transparency amid hardening regional opposition to imported waste.

Innovation & Product Development

1. Recycled Plastic Reinvents Sustainable Home Construction

Source: Plastic Today

• MIT engineers have developed a novel 3D-printing process that turns unwashed plastic waste into lightweight, durable construction-grade trusses, offering a sustainable alternative to wood in housing construction.
• The technology enables direct use of dirty, single-use plastics to manufacture modular building components rapidly and efficiently, eliminating the need for extensive preprocessing.
• Structural testing demonstrated that these recycled plastic trusses, despite weighing just 13 pounds, can support over 4,000 pounds, surpassing U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development standards and suggesting strong market potential.
• Widespread adoption of this approach could help alleviate global timber shortages, reduce plastic waste, and reshape plastics demand in the construction sector as housing needs rise worldwide.

2. Peak Nano Develops Biodegradable Nanolayer Films for Sustainable Packaging

Source: Plastic Today

• Peak Nano has launched a funded initiative to develop biodegradable nanolayer polymer films for food, beverage, and medical packaging, leveraging its patented NanoPlex technology and support from the Greater Akron Polymer Innovation Hub.
• The new films are engineered to match or exceed the barrier and mechanical properties of conventional multilayer packaging while offering full biodegradability, directly addressing the industry's challenges around microplastic waste and landfill accumulation.
• NanoPlex technology enables processors to integrate high-performance biodegradable films into existing production lines without major capital investment, providing a competitive advantage as regulatory and brand pressures on sustainability intensify.
• Concurrent advances in domestic production of high-performance capacitor films signal Peak Nano's strategy to address both sustainability and U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities in polymer materials.

3. Packaging Film Extends Fresh Produce Shelf Life

Source: Plastic Today

• Envalior and PerfoTec have launched an advanced packaging film made from thermoplastic elastomer that naturally adapts to the respiration of fresh produce, extending shelf life and eliminating the need for Modified Atmosphere Packaging.
• The technology's ultra-precise laser perforation controls oxygen and moisture levels, reducing spoilage, mold, and product weight loss while supporting eco-friendly logistics by enabling longer, slower shipping methods like sea freight.
• Adopted in both large harvest container liners and pallet covers, the recyclable film is robust, food-contact approved, and already applied commercially to products like bell peppers, cabbage, flowers, and berries.

4. Becoming Unglued Is Good for Plastic Recycling

Source: Plastic Today

• Engineers at Newcastle University have developed a reversible, water-based adhesive that enables the separation of bonded materials on demand, streamlining recycling processes for items like laminated films and plastic bottle labels.
• The latest formulation uses clay additives to allow strong bonding and easy debonding with a single application, overcoming limitations of earlier dual-component adhesives and simplifying industrial workflows.
• This versatile glue performs effectively on challenging plastics such as polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), expanding recycling opportunities for packaging, automotive parts, and electronics.