From the CEO
Good afternoon folks,
Welcome to 2026—a year that feels less like a continuation and more like a reckoning. The AI trade has attracted nearly every fluttering dollar in the system, and much of the rest of the economy has been left running on fumes. The question now isn't whether the technology is powerful—it's whether it translates into broad productivity gains, faster operational change inside corporations, and real demand in the industrial base… or whether we hit a reset first.
For the industrial economy, I'll take truth-seeking over avoidance. The faster the financial sector unwinds its spiral, the sooner the real economy can reprice, recalibrate, and move forward. In raw materials, what we need most is a lift in downstream demand—and realistically, that becomes easier in a lower interest-rate environment. Expect suppliers to keep operating rates low and buyers to do the same with inventories—an ideal setup for price volatility when supply/demand shocks hit.
In plastics, my base case is more of the same. Expecting slight increases across the board in Jan/Feb followed by a soft spring and a spiky summer, with upside in Q3/Q4. PET and PP remain markets where traders can still find margin; PE continues to look tighter. One growing pocket of opportunity: engineering-grade polymers, especially where tariffs are reshaping flows.
On the Matium side, we're taking our one-of-a-kind material trading platform and expanding beyond plastics—opening into paper, metals, and machinery later in Q1. With AI autonomously expanding our leads database, a global network already in motion, and our financial infrastructure nearing completion, Matium is positioned for its biggest year yet. Our goal remains the same: bring more of the industrial economy into the digital age and unlock real efficiency for every member of the Matium network.
I'm looking forward to seeing many of you on the road this year. If digitizing and automating functions of your business is a priority in 2026, reach out to me directly.
Thank you,
Bailey Robin - Cofounder/CEO
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | MoM | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate, % (FEDFUNDS) | 3.88 | -0.21 | -0.31 | -0.89 |
| PPI - Plastics and Resin (PCU325211325211) | 311.0 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -1.0 |
| PPI - Ocean Freight Rate (PCU483111483111) | 399.3 | 12.8 | -12.1 | -5.5 |
| PPI - Trucking Rate (PCU484484) | 190.1 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| PMI - Manufacturing (ISM) | 48.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| US Plastics Imports, $B | 5.58 | -0.26 | 0.12 | -0.18 |
| US Plastics Exports, $B | 6.29 | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| US Plastics Production Index (IPG326S) | 92.7 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -2.3 |
Sources: FRED, ISM, US Census.
Markets & Trade
1. Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (12-19-25)
Source: American Chemistry Council
U.S. production of major plastic resins totaled 8.2 billion pounds in October, down 1.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year; however, year-to-date production is slightly higher by 0.2% at 84.3 billion pounds.
Sales and captive use of major plastic resins reached 8.9 billion pounds in October, increasing 1.7% from the prior month and 8.5% compared to October 2024, though year-to-date sales declined 1.9% to 85.1 billion pounds.
Chemical railcar loadings were essentially flat year-over-year (down 0.1%) with a total of 32,013 loadings for the week ending December 13, showing a 1.1% year-to-date increase and rising activity over seven of the last thirteen weeks.
Energy markets showed lower oil prices due to peace deal optimism, but U.S. natural gas prices remained elevated despite weaker inventory draws; combined oil and gas rig count slightly decreased to 541, influencing feedstock costs.
2. Plastics Market Turbulence Could Continue in New Year
Source: Recycling Today
Changes in U.S. tariffs, such as the extension of reciprocal tariff coverage to virgin and recycled PET, introduced uncertainty for buyers and suppliers, complicating market planning and contributing to soft demand despite ample supply.
Trade data indicates a decline in polyethylene and PET imports as of September 2025, though imported PET remains attractive for its higher quality and competitive pricing compared to domestic alternatives.
Slowdowns in PET recycling are reflected in decreased bottle recycling rates and rPET sales in North America, compounded by the closure of several major rPET recycling facilities, highlighting challenges in domestic recycling infrastructure and the need for supportive policies to stabilize the market.
The plastics recycling market faced significant volatility in 2025 due to oversupply of virgin resins, fluctuating U.S. trade policies, and weak demand across most resin types, a trend expected to persist into early 2026.
3. Poll Claims Companies Worried About Future Packaging Materials Shortages
Source: Recycling Today
A recent survey by Aura reveals that 75% of packaging industry leaders view shortages of packaging materials, including fossil-fuel derived polymers, as the foremost future challenge, marking a 15% increase in concern over the past six months.
The scarcity of critical resources is driving brands and retailers to potentially prioritize material availability over product suitability, highlighting a significant risk to packaging strategies and supply chain resilience.
Alongside material shortages, industry concerns include insufficient data for tracking climate change and emissions (69%) and geopolitical trade instability (67%), all compounded by tightening regulations like extended producer responsibility (EPR).
Looking forward to 2050, industry professionals see innovation in materials, enhanced recycling infrastructures, and advancements in artificial intelligence as key opportunities to address these challenges and secure sustainable packaging solutions.
Business & Corporate Strategy
1. PureCycle Product Used in Movie Souvenir Cups
Source: Recycling Today
PureCycle Technologies collaborates with Golden Link North America and Churchill Container to produce movie souvenir cups made from recycled polypropylene using PureCycle's PureFive resin.
Golden Link is the first movie theater concessions company to introduce the Run It Back line of recyclable cups, enhancing sustainable options for moviegoers and collectors.
The partnership demonstrates PureCycle's expanding influence in incorporating recycled content into new market applications, particularly in concessions packaging.
2. Aduro Graduates from Shell GameChanger Program
Source: Recycling Today
Aduro Clean Technologies has graduated from Shell's GameChanger program, marking a key milestone in advancing its Hydrochemolytic Technology (HCT) for converting mixed plastic scrap into high-quality hydrocarbons.
The technology demonstrated over 80% yield of liquid hydrocarbons with enhanced feedstock flexibility and process efficiency, showing tolerance to common plastic contaminants and selective production of steam-crackable hydrocarbons.
Shell's program provided vital external validation and guidance, supporting Aduro's scale-up pathway from continuous flow reactors to pilot and demonstration plants with targeted input capacity of approximately 8,000 tons per year.
3. Carbios Delays French PET Recycling Plant to Secure Funds
Source: Resource Recycling
Carbios is delaying its Longlaville PET depolymerization plant by three months to Q1 2028 while securing the final 10% of financing, following earlier construction stalls in late 2024 amid financial concerns.
The company has secured approximately 50% offtake commitments from beverage sector customers, L'Oréal, L'Occitane, and Indorama Ventures, with public financing including €30M from the French Environment Agency and €12.5M from Grand Est Regional Council.
Carbios is simultaneously expanding into Asia through a 70/30 joint venture with Wankai New Materials to build a 50,000 MT/year, €115M PET recycling facility in China's Zhejiang province, with construction starting Q1 2026.
Governance & Oversight
1. PACK Act Introduced to Congress
Source: Recycling Today
The Packaging and Claims Knowledge (PACK) Act of 2025 was introduced to establish the first voluntary federal standard under the FTC for environmental claims on consumer packaging, aiming to eliminate misleading 'green' labels that confuse consumers and undermine recycling efforts.
The legislation mandates third-party certification for recyclable, compostable, and reusable claims on consumer packaging, ensuring claims are scientifically verified and aligned with existing recycling and composting programs, while exempting nonconsumer packaging from this certification.
The PACK Act preempts inconsistent state regulations, creating a unified national framework that simplifies compliance for businesses, reduces regulatory uncertainty, and helps improve consumer trust and clarity regarding environmental packaging claims.
Innovation & Product Development
1. Modern Recycling Meets AI
Source: Resource Recycling
AI-enabled sorting technology is transforming recycling operations, with WM reporting nearly doubled processing output (40-45 tons/hour) at facilities equipped with the technology and planning $1.4B in upgrades across 39 facilities by end of 2026.
Companies like Tomra, Greyparrot, and Amcor are deploying deep-learning systems that can distinguish 111+ waste categories, sort plastics by polymer type and food-grade suitability, and track materials across their lifecycle for circular economy compliance.
Beyond sorting, AI platforms from companies like CurbWaste and Greyparrot are providing real-time operational analytics and waste intelligence that help recyclers optimize inventory, meet compliance requirements, and compete against virgin plastic imports.
Sustainability & Resource Management
1. Greyparrot Report Highlights Improving Recycling Efficiency
Source: Recycling Today
Greyparrot's 2025 Recycling Trend Report, based on AI-driven analysis from 65 facilities worldwide, shows improved sorting efficiency despite increased volumes of recyclable plastics, with residue losses decreasing from 3,000 to 2,500 tons per facility.
The report highlights significant variability in recovery rates, especially between clear and colored PET containers, emphasizing the need for extended producer responsibility (EPR) fees to align more closely with actual recovery performance.
Residue composition analysis reveals rising metal contamination, partly due to electronic waste streams, signaling the need for greater investment in responsible e-waste recycling and management to mitigate risks like battery fires.
2. Amcor Lends Support to Danish Plastic Recycling Project
Source: Recycling Today
Amcor has joined a three-year Danish-led partnership, CRISP, to advance full-scale circular recycling of food packaging made from polyethylene and polypropylene rigid plastics collected from households.
The project aims to develop a systemic solution to produce food-grade packaging from post-consumer recycled HDPE and PP material, leveraging Amcor's CleanStream mechanical recycling technology and existing production capabilities.
CRISP aligns with the EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation targets, aiming for a 55% plastic recycling rate by 2030 and designing packaging primarily for recyclability, while supporting Denmark's extended producer responsibility program.