From the CEO
Good morning folks,
We at Matium hope you had a great Thanksgiving with family and friends. A huge thank-you to everyone who has supported us this year. The network is growing faster than ever, and our 2026 expansion plans are ambitious.
In plastics, demand remains soft as we sit in the 37th straight month of manufacturing recession (PMI still signaling contraction). Resin producers are cutting operating rates to wait it out, recycling economics are tough, and buyers are hesitant to load up until they're convinced the bottom is truly in. That said, some excellent year-end deals are appearing on both virgin and recycled resin—check out the market on Matium to browse listings and auctions.
Looking to 2026, we see a bullish commodity setup taking shape, though Q1 could still feel like a hangover. We'll be keeping a close eye on December jobs data and January's Q4 earnings reports—any weakness there could give the Fed reason to stay accommodative. Come April, Trump's new Fed leadership steps in. If nothing has already broken by then, expect more liquidity to flow, lifting commodity demand and pricing with it. We see a strong second half of 2026, with potential upside beforehand.
Best of luck to all.
Thank you,
Bailey Robin - Cofounder/CEO
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Current | MoM | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate, % (FEDFUNDS) | 4.09 | -0.13 | -0.20 | -0.85 |
| PPI - Plastics and Resin (PCU325211325211) | 311.0 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -1.0 |
| PPI - Ocean Freight Rate (PCU483111483111) | 399.3 | 12.8 | -12.1 | -5.5 |
| PPI - Trucking Rate (PCU484484) | 190.1 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| PMI - Manufacturing (ISM) | 48.7 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| US Plastics Imports, $B | 6.31 | 0.75 | 0.52 | -0.11 |
| US Plastics Exports, $B | 6.45 | -0.23 | -0.20 | -0.03 |
| US Plastics Production Index (IPG326S) | 93.2 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
Sources: FRED, ISM, US Census.
Markets & Trade
1. PLASTICS Economic Analysis: Plastics Industry Demonstrates Stability Amid Federal Shutdown Disruptions
Source: Plastic Industry Association
The Plastics Industry Association's Chief Economist released an analysis on the impact of the recent 44-day U.S. government shutdown on the plastics industry, revealing the sector's stability amid federal disruptions.
Despite the macroeconomic challenges caused by the shutdown, the plastics industry maintained steady demand through its embedded role in federal procurement, with an estimated $9.5 billion in plastic products integrated into 2024 federal spending.
This sustained federal expenditure underscores the plastics industry's critical support for both defense and non-defense government operations, highlighting its strategic importance in essential government functions.
2. Plastics Industry Association Releases 2025 Q3 Committee on Equipment Statistics Report
Source: Plastic Industry Association
The Plastics Industry Association released the Q3 2025 Committee on Equipment Statistics report showing a strong increase in plastics machinery shipments compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.
Injection molding machinery shipments rose significantly, with a 30.0% increase quarter-over-quarter and 4.2% year-over-year, driven by sector-specific growth factors.
Conversely, extrusion equipment shipments declined, with single-screw extruders falling 4.9% quarter-over-quarter and 24.2% year-over-year, while twin-screw extruders dropped 28.9% quarter-over-quarter and 38.6% year-over-year.
3. Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (11-26-25)
Source: American Chemistry Council
Chemical producer prices rose by 0.1% in September, driven by higher prices for organic chemicals including petrochemicals; however, prices for plastic resins declined, contributing to a modest year-over-year increase of 1.3%, marking the ninth consecutive year-over-year gain.
Chemical wholesale sales increased by 1.4% in August while chemical inventories fell 1.8%, resulting in a decreased inventories-to-sales ratio of 1.07, the lowest since April 2021, indicating tightening supply conditions in chemical markets.
U.S. economic forecasts project 1.9% GDP growth in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, with consumer spending moderating to 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, while industrial production is expected to grow modestly by 1.1% in 2025 and 0.2% in 2026, indicating a cautious demand outlook for chemical and plastics sectors.
Energy markets showed relative stability with steady U.S. natural gas prices amid the heating season and a modest increase in oil & gas rig counts, factors that may influence feedstock availability and costs for petrochemical and plastics production.
4. Eastman, Indorama Pin Hopes on Pent-Up Demand
Source: Resource Recycling
Eastman is focusing on increasing capacity at its Kingsport PET recycling plant through a 30% expansion while delaying construction of its second US methanolysis plant in Longview, Texas, with contractual volumes for PepsiCo now expected starting in 2026 due to postponed offtake commitments.
Eastman's strategy involves using capacity expansions and flexibility at Kingsport to meet current contractual obligations and test efficiencies, while consumer demand for recycled PET in durable goods remains subdued amid macroeconomic challenges, though brand commitments largely remain intact.
Indorama Ventures reported a 33% decline in Q3 EBITDA and expects continued weakness in the polyester sector through 2026, driven by unresolved tariff issues and fractured supply chains, leading to strategic actions including closing its Montreal PTA plant to optimize assets.
Both companies anticipate pent-up demand to rebound when economic conditions stabilize, with industry consolidation likely as supply-demand rebalances amid ongoing global macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges impacting the PET market.
Business & Corporate Strategy
1. WM Rolling out Curbside Acceptance of PP Cups
Source: Resource Recycling
WM is expanding curbside recycling acceptance to include polypropylene (PP) and paper to-go cups, targeting full capability across its single-stream recycling facilities by mid-2026 following a $1.4 billion investment in advanced sorting infrastructure.
The upgraded facilities employ optical scanners and intelligent sorting technology that efficiently process these previously challenging materials, addressing the multi-material and coated nature of food-service cups.
WM encourages municipalities and haulers to update recycling guidelines and educate residents to ensure proper cup recovery, aiming to boost diversion rates while minimizing contamination risks associated with liquids, lids, and non-accepted cup formats.
2. Softness in Bale Pricing Adds to Hauler Headwinds
Source: Resource Recycling
Major waste haulers reported strong Q3 earnings and expanded EBITDA margins despite recycled commodity prices falling by 30% to 35% year-over-year, with prices expected to remain low through Q4 2025 but potentially rebound in 2026 due to capacity reductions and improving market conditions.
Plastic recycling faces significant challenges, exemplified by the closure of Natura PCR's plastic film processing operation driven by low virgin resin prices and delayed minimum content legislation, indicating market and regulatory headwinds for high-quality recycled plastic pellets.
Waste haulers are actively pursuing strategic growth through mergers and acquisitions, with over $2 billion in deals underway, including multiple tuck-in acquisitions and larger geographic expansions aimed at strengthening their environmental services portfolios despite market price pressures.
Governance & Oversight
1. NAW Seeks Preliminary Injunction to Halt Oregon's EPR Law
Source: Recycling Today
The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) has filed a motion for a preliminary injunction to suspend enforcement of Oregon's Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act (RMA), citing concerns over opaque fee structures and unsustainable costs imposed on interstate distributors.
The Oregon RMA requires distributors to contract with the private producer responsibility organization Circular Action Alliance (CAA) and pay fees calculated by a confidential methodology lacking meaningful state oversight, leading to unexpectedly high charges that often surpass product margins, particularly impacting small- and midsized businesses.
NAW argues that the law violates constitutional clauses by imposing burdens on interstate commerce and delegating regulatory authority to a private entity dominated by corporate interests, and highlights the risk of substantial penalties and compliance complexities within multistate supply chains.
2. PLASTICS Applauds U.S. Senate Passage of STEWARD Act, Commends Senator Capito's Leadership
Source: Plastic Industry Association
The U.S. Senate passed the bipartisan STEWARD Act, aiming to strengthen America's recycling infrastructure and promote a circular, resilient manufacturing economy.
Senator Shelley Moore Capito played a key leadership role in driving this legislation, focusing on practical recycling solutions and expanding access to modern recycling systems nationwide.
The STEWARD Act will improve recycling infrastructure and keep valuable materials in the economy, enhancing the recycling system's effectiveness and supporting American manufacturing.
3. Senate Passes REUSE Act to Advance Research on Reuse and Refill Systems
Source: Recycling Today
The U.S. Senate has passed the bipartisan REUSE Act of 2025, directing the EPA to study the feasibility and best practices of reuse and refill systems, assessing economic and environmental impacts as well as potential barriers.
This legislative move reflects strong public support, with polls showing over 80% of U.S. voters favor policies to reduce single-use plastics and increase reusable packaging and foodware.
The REUSE Act aims to promote sustainable solutions that could reduce plastic pollution, protect endangered marine species, and create jobs, signaling growing governmental and societal momentum in plastic waste reduction.
Innovation & Product Development
1. Global Recycling Patent Trends May Reflect Legislative Push
Source: Resource Recycling
Patent filings for chemical recycling technologies worldwide reached a record 794 in 2023, doubling since 2019, driven in part by government initiatives that stimulate innovation, particularly in countries like South Korea with mandates on recycled content.
South Korea leads in patent applications, increasing over 20% in 2023 amid strong regulatory targets such as mandating 10% recycled resin in beverage bottles by 2025 and 30% by 2030, illustrating how government policy directly impacts innovation activity.
Patent filings in the US and Europe declined in 2023, contributing to a slowing global growth rate, while new entrants including research institutions and chemical producers broaden the competitive landscape and reflect early-stage developments in chemical recycling.
Industry leaders like Germany's BASF significantly increased patent filings, overtaking US-based Eastman Chemical, as technologies focusing on polypropylene and pyrolysis see growing innovation, signaling shifts in market leadership and ongoing technological advancement.
2. Struktol Highlights VMO Series for Enhanced PP Processing
Source: Recycling Today
Struktol Co. of America has launched the VMO Series, a line of advanced melt flow modifiers designed to optimize polypropylene (PP) processing for both pure and recycled applications, enhancing manufacturing efficiency and product performance.
The VMO Series features proprietary fatty acid derivatives and vis-breaking technology, allowing rapid, precise melt flow index adjustments and compatibility with PP containing up to 35% polyethylene, addressing contamination and intentional blending in recycling.
The product range includes multiple activity grades, enabling recyclers to tailor melt flow targets, consolidate raw materials, and reduce the need for multiple base PP MFI inventories, thereby improving throughput and lowering costs.
Sustainability & Resource Management
1. RCon 2025: Disrupting the Cycle of Textile Waste
Source: Recycling Today
A partnership between Goodwill Industries, WM, and Reju aims to disrupt the cycle of textile waste by enhancing textile collection, sorting, and recycling processes to promote circularity within the textile industry.
WM has implemented curbside and multifamily textile collection programs and operates a demonstration-scale sorting facility using robotics and near-infrared technology to separate textiles by fabric composition and identify recyclable materials.
Goodwill diverts billions of pounds of donated goods from landfills annually and collaborates with WM to sort textiles for reuse and resale, while non-viable items are directed to recycling or alternative fuel facilities.
Reju utilizes IBM's VolCat depolymerization technology to chemically recycle polyester fabrics, targeting improved textile-to-textile circularity, and is developing a full-scale Regeneration Hub in the Netherlands to expand its capacity and supply chain partnerships.